• Home
  • Blog
  • About
  • Contact
  • OBTC Shop

Breaking Down the Value of ESPN's Week 2 Power Rankings

9/10/2014

0 Comments

 
Picture
Photo Credit: Parker Anders (Flickr)
It's officially a new week of the NFL. It's been a crazy few days as football nation has digested the heavy details of the Ray Rice domestic violence scandal,  so I figured I'd help everyone out with a bit of Week 1 perspective and analysis. 

Like any great week in the NFL, Week 1 featured some surprising performances and comebacks. You've already started to see quarterback and team power rankings pop up, and inevitably you are feeling unreasonably high or low about your team based on the relatively innocuous standings of 0-1 or 1-0. 

Nevertheless, it's important for all fans to keep their cool and remain focused on the end result. So here is a breakdown over the previous three seasons of the top five and bottom five teams as ranked by ESPN in their power rankings heading into week 2. 

2011 ESPN Week 2 Power Rankings
Team           Wk 2 Rank         Wk 2 Record       Wk 18 Rank     Wk 18 Record      Postseason
Packers         1                        1-0                      1                      15-1                     NFC Championship (lost to NYG**)
Patriots          2                        1-0                      4                      13-3                     Super Bowl (lost to NYG)
Eagles           3                        1-0                    15                      8-8                       ----
Ravens          4                        1-0                      5                      12-4                    AFC Championship (Lost to NE)
Jets                5                        1-0                    19                      8-8                      ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Broncos        28                       0-1                    14                      8-8                      AFC Divisional (lost to NE)
Panthers       29                       0-1                    23                      6-10                    ----
Bengals        30                       0-1                    11                      9-7                      AFC Wild Card (lost to HOU)
Seahawks     31                      0-1                    21                      7-9                      ----
Browns         32                       0-1                    28                      4-12                    ----
**New York Giants Week 2 ranking: 17th

It's pretty clear that ESPN was all over the place with their predictions in 2011, as a few teams were changing their fate heading into their next few seasons. This includes the Bengals who were beginning the Andy Dalton era, and the Broncos who made their improbable run to the AFC divisional game on a hail mary from none other than Tim Tebow. Yes, Tebow was mostly a fluke but their impressive receiving core and solid defensive line were attractive enough to lure in Peyton Manning. The rest is [a lot of regular season record-breaking] history. 

2012 ESPN Week 2 Power Rankings
Team           Wk 2 Rank         Wk 2 Record       Wk 18 Rank     Wk 18 Record      Postseason
Patriots         1                        1-0                      4                      12-4                     AFC Championship (lost to BAL)
49ers            2                        1-0                      3                      11-4-1                 Super Bowl (lost to BAL)
Ravens         3                        1-0                    10                      10-6                     Won Super Bowl XLVII
Texans         4                        1-0                      9                      12-4                     AFC Divisional (lost to NE)
Packers        5                        1-0                      6                      11-5                     NFL Divisional (lost to SF)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vikings        28                       1-0                    12                      10-6                      NFC Wild Card (lost to GB)
Jaguars       29                       0-1                    31                      2-14                      ----
Dolphins     30                       0-1                    20                      7-9                         ----
Browns        31                      0-1                    24                      5-11                       ----
Colts            32                      0-1                     7                       11-5                       AFC Wild Card (lost to BAL)

Another year in which two teams from the bottom five ranked teams going into Week 2 ended up making it to the playoffs. Only this time ESPN was fairly dead on with their top five picks. At this point, the Texans were establishing themselves with a dynamic if inconsistent offense and a brutal defense featuring JJ Watt, and the Packers were still riding their high-flying offense to the playoffs despite a defense devoid of any strengths. But it was the Colts who no one saw coming. Let's suffice it  to say that ESPN hasn't underestimated Manning's successor since. 

2013 ESPN Week 2 Power Rankings
Team           Wk 2 Rank         Wk 2 Record       Wk 18 Rank     Wk 18 Record      Postseason
49ers             1                       1-0                      4                      12-4                     NFC Championship (lost to SEA)
Seahawks     2                       1-0                      1                      13-3                     Won Super Bowl XLVIII
Broncos         3                       1-0                      2                      13-3                     Super Bowl (lost to SEA)
Falcons         4                        0-1                     26                     4-12                     ----
Patriots         5                        1-0                      5                      12-4                     AFC Championship (lost to DEN)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Buccaneers   28                     0-1                    27                      4-12                    ----
Bills                29                     0-1                    25                      6-10                    ----
Browns         30                      0-1                    28                      4-12                    ----
Raiders         31                      0-1                    30                      4-12                    ----
Jaguars        32                      0-1                    29                      4-12                    ----

Outside of the quick demise of the Atlanta Falcons, this was ESPN's best showing over the past years. Very obviously it is a result of the rise of the NFC West, featuring the 49ers and Seahawks perenially at the top of the defensive leader boards. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have also done their part for the ESPN ranksters, making it a fair bet to put their teams in the top five every year. 

Taking all of this into consideration, take a look at this year's Week 2 Rankings. 

2014 ESPN Week 2 Power Rankings
Team           Wk 2 Rank         Wk 2 Record   
Seahawks    1                        1-0                      
Broncos        2                        1-0                     
49ers            3                        1-0                      
Eagles          4                        1-0                    
Bengals        5                        1-0                  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Redskins       28                      0-1                   
Browns         29                       0-1                   
Jaguars        30                       0-1                   
Raiders         31                       0-1                    
Rams            32                       0-1                 

It's pretty hard to hard to argue with the bottom five teams. They all lack any significant quarterback consistency and are still struggling to get out from underneath the woes they faced last season. As far as the top five goes, I'm still not sold on the Eagles. What have they really done to earn our faith besides barely eek their way into the playoffs last year? Sure, Nick Foles had an improbably good debut and had a fantastic second half in week 1, but what about that first half? Just jitters? Hard to tell. Chip Kelly clearly has the team going in the right direction, but they still have some proving to do. Just look up to the 2011 rankings to remind yourself of just how quickly the Eagles can fall when they have high expectations early in the season. 

On the other hand, the Bengals have seemed perched on the precipice of elite status for two seasons now, and are current favorites to come out of the AFC North. Dalton still has to work on his accuracy though, so I consider their place as the fifth best NFL team after Week 1 as optimistic. I have to think that their spot on the list is due to the week 1 losses by the Saints, Patriots, Packers and Colts. 

What do you think about 2014's Week 2 rankings? Comment below and throw in your two cents in the poll!

0 Comments

The Ray Rice saga continues to expose a disturbing NFL culture

9/9/2014

1 Comment

 
Picture
Keith Alllson (Flickr)
If you are a fan of the NFL then you are most likely aware by now of the facts surrounding the indefinite suspension of Ray Rice from the league on Monday morning. It is a cascading waterfall of complete incompetency across the board, and the level to which the NFL has continued to mishandle the situation is perplexing and troubling at the very least.

 It begins with the February 15th arrest of Rice and his then-fiance/current wife Janay Palmer for assault and subsequent release of Atlantic Casino security footage showing Rice dragging Palmer's unconscious body from an elevator. It was clear at that point that some type of domestic dispute, the details of which were unclear, had occurred inside the elevator. 

Based on that evidence and the outcome of the judiciary process which involved Rice enrolling in a pre-trial intervention program to avoid prosecution, the Ravens running back was doled out a two-game suspension. The punishment sparked public outrage at it's insignificance, especially in relation to recreational and performance-enhancing drug-related suspensions that have ranged anywhere from 6 weeks to an entire season. On August 28th the NFL announced revisions to their personal conduct code to include stricter punishments for domestic violence incidents, with commissioner Roger Goodell stating "I didn't get it right...simply put, we have to do better. And we will.".

On Monday morning of Sept. 8th, TMZ Sports released the now infamous security footage of what actually happened inside the elevator. Rice brutally knockout-punched Palmer in the head and stood over her unconscious body until the elevator doors opened, when he then dragged her limp body across the elevator floor and out the doors. The footage is graphic, difficult to watch, and raises many questions regarding the extent of domestic abuse in the NFL. 

Almost immediately, Rice was suspended indefinitely from the NFL. The NFL and Baltimore Ravens both stated explicitly that they had not seen the footage previously.

"That video was not made available to us and no one in our office has seen it until today,'' said league spokesman Greg Aiello.

Here's where things get pretty damn unflattering for the NFL.

There are very few people who believe that the NFL did not see the video prior to it's leak to the public on Monday.

There are even fewer people who believe that the NFL not have access to view the video prior to Monday. 
 ESPN legal analysts Lester Munson and Roger Cossack were interviewed Tuesday morning on SportsCenter, and are both boldly suspicious of the NFL's claims that the video hadn't been available to them previously. 

"Let's keep in mind that the NFL has former FBI agents, secret service, police officers...[with access to this type of evidence]...it remains very doubtful to us that they did not have it when the commissioner made his original decision", stated Munson.
Cossack followed up saying, "Ray Rice's attorney would have been given that video...it's hard for me to believe that they couldn't have gotten a hold of that video if they wanted to."

 There are even fewer people still who believe that - regardless of their access to the footage- the NFL could not have deduced the level of violence that must have taken place in the elevator based on the earlier footage of Rice coldly dragging his unconscious fiance across the floor. 

So we are looking at a situation with two very obvious possibilities, neither of which inspire any confidence in the decency and humanity of the upper echelons of the NFL; particularly Goodell. They either saw the video and chose to sweep under the rug what is very obviously a violent and criminal act by one of their players, or chose to play dumb by purposely avoiding the footage in order to skirt the responsibility that it's content would encumber.

But maybe the even more important question is why? 

Why protect Ray Rice? The video evidence of what happened basically relieves the NFL completely from having to make a difficult ruling that would encompass any gray-area. So why ignore that evidence and continue to under-sanction Rice? 

Did they really believe the video evidence would just go away, and that they could avoid a major suspension altogether? And if they are just looking to avoid controversy, doesn't that mean that the safety of the players and their families have now been trumped by the NFL's laughably incompetent attempt at image control?

 We are just two seasons removed from the Kansas City Chiefs' linebacker Jovan Belcher shooting his wife and then killing himself in the parking lot in front of his coaches. Aaron Hernandez is in jail for murder, suspected of killing up to four people across the course of many years. What kid of atrocity will have to take place in order for the NFL to start not just sanction these players once they are caught, but begin seeking answers about their off-field lives before it is too late? This multi-billion dollar league has admitted responsibility to the community, fans and family of its' players and yet they continue to turn a blind eye until they are sucker-punched with evidence. And even then they screw it up. 

It's patently clear that the NFL is an organization in which accountability is directly proportionate to profitability; and the National Football League is the most profitable league in the world. 

That's very scary. 
1 Comment
    Picture

    Author

    | Tanya Ray Fox |
    Boston-raised to love sports a good beer and a healthy zest for debate. In addition to Tanya's extensive online portfolio of sports writing, she has spent over five years working in production at multiple major-market stations on both coasts, including Comcast SportsNet New England, NFL Network and Time Warner Cable Sportsnet.

    Archives

    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014

    Categories

    All
    Aly Raisman
    Baltimore Ravens
    Blog
    Boston
    Boston Bruins
    Boston Celtics
    Brazil
    Bruins
    Canadiens
    Chile
    Denver Broncos
    Domestic Violence
    ESPN
    Gymnastics
    Lists
    MVP
    New England Patriots
    Nfl
    Nhl
    Peyton Manning
    Rankings
    Ranks
    Ray Rice
    Red Sox
    Rob Gronkowski
    Spain
    Sports
    TMZ
    Tom Brady
    Video
    World Cup

    RSS Feed

    View my profile on LinkedIn
Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.